⚽ Tottenham host depleted Leeds in Premier League relegation six-pointer

HOMS — May 10, 2026

Tottenham host Leeds United at Hotspur Stadium on Monday in a relegation six-pointer between the league's 17th- and 16th-placed clubs, with Roberto De Zerbi's side one point clear of the drop zone.

The stakes are not symmetrical. Spurs need points to keep West Ham at arm's length and avoid a finale nobody at the club expected. Leeds arrive knowing a win mathematically secures Premier League safety, which is the kind of incentive that tends to outweigh fatigue and travel. Daniel Farke is absent from media duties this week — assistant Eddie Reimer fronted the pre-match press conference — and the manager's own message has been delivered second-hand.

## Form and recent runs

Tottenham finally found something. After a 118-day Premier League winless run, De Zerbi's side beat Wolves 1-0 a fortnight ago and followed up with a 2-1 win at Aston Villa last weekend. That is the first back-to-back league win they have managed since the opening weeks of 2025-26, and a third consecutive victory on Monday would be their first three-game streak of the season. The form line reads WWDLL, which flatters and warns in equal measure: a draw with Brighton the staff felt should have been won, and a defeat at Sunderland the staff felt should have been at worst a draw, both sit inside that sequence.

Leeds come in carrying a different kind of momentum. Noah Okafor — sidelined for two games with a calf strain — had been carrying the attack with four goals in his last five Premier League outings, and his absence reframes the visitors' shape entirely. With ten players ruled out and three more doubtful, Farke is picking from a thinned bench rather than a full squad.

The head-to-head pattern is the most lopsided number on the table. Spurs have won eight of their last nine meetings with Leeds, including a five-match winning streak in the fixture stretching back to 2021. For a relegation-zone home side, that is unusually firm historical ground.

## Team news

Tottenham are without eight first-team players. Captain Cristian Romero is out until June with a knee injury, leaving Kevin Danso and Micky van de Ven to continue in central defence. Mohammed Kudus and Xavi Simons remain unavailable, and winger Wilson Odobert ruptured the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee in February and will not feature again this season. De Zerbi confirmed in his Thursday press conference that there are no fresh injury concerns beyond the existing list, and addressed the roles of Dominic Solanke, Conor Gallagher, and James Maddison without committing to specific selections.

Leeds' picture is bleaker. Ten players are out, three more are doubtful, and Okafor's calf injury removes the visitors' most in-form attacker. The club has indicated some senior players are returning to the squad for Monday, but Reimer did not detail names. Recovery timelines for Okafor and the German international midfielder Gudmundsson — influential since arriving from Hoffenheim last summer — were not made specific, and that vagueness is itself part of the picture: Leeds simply do not yet know who can play 90 minutes.

## The tactical read

De Zerbi has settled on a 4-2-3-1 and is expected to make minimal changes from the side that won at Villa Park. Rodrigo Bentancur and Joao Palhinha will sit in front of the back four, a pairing built to win second balls and protect the channels Romero would normally cover. The shape pushes possession into wide areas, where Spurs have generated most of their recent chance volume. Our explainer on [how to read AI match analysis](/blog/how-to-read-ai-match-analysis) breaks down how we weight tactical setups like this in close fixtures.

Leeds' tactical question is harder to answer because the personnel question is unresolved. With Okafor out and a thinned attacking unit, Farke's side may need to defend deeper than instinct prefers, accept territorial inferiority, and look for transitions through whichever forward Reimer confirms in the eleven. There is a counter-argument — Spurs have looked porous at home, leaking goals to Brighton and Sunderland in recent weeks — but executing it without a striker in form is the gap.

## The number to know

Eight wins from the last nine meetings. That is not a curiosity, it is a pattern that has held under three different Tottenham managers and through periods of much worse Spurs form. Leeds have not won this fixture since their return to the top flight, and a five-match losing streak in it adds a psychological layer the visitors cannot easily wave away.

## What to watch

The defensive question is genuine. Romero's absence has not yet been fully tested at home against a side that needs to score, and how Danso and van de Ven manage Leeds' transitions — whoever leads them — will decide whether this is a controlled win or a nervy one. Referee Jarred Gillett tends to let games breathe; in a fixture our model flags for cards, that may matter more than usual.

## The iCashy read

Our iCashy AI engine lands on a Tottenham win at 77% confidence, with a projected 2-1 scoreline that allows for Leeds finding a goal against an exposed centre-back pairing but trusts the home side's structure, head-to-head record, and survival urgency to take the points. The model also leans Over 2.5 goals at 57% and Both Teams to Score at 59%, a coherent read of a match between two leaky defences. Confidence above seventy is firm but not certain — see our note on [confidence scores explained](/blog/confidence-scores-explained) for what that band actually means, and our [responsible gambling guide](/blog/responsible-gambling-guide) before any wager. Live odds and our full slate sit on the [markets](/markets) hub.